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Monday, December 9, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Boost for trade as global deal struck
The first major global trade deal in nearly 20 years was struck Saturday as 160 countries agreed on measures that could boost the world economy by as much as $1 trillion.
Bloomberg | Fed Stimulus Blunted as Software Replaces Hard Assets: Economy
“Monetary policy is driven by the feeling that if you lower interest rates businesses will invest,” said Joe Kennedy, a senior fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a Washington research group. “There is an assumption that it will be on big, long-lasting projects.”
CNN Money | The economy: What's ahead in 2014
After five frustrating years, the economy is ready to bust out. Stocks already had a banner run in anticipation of the rebound, housing is scorching, and jobs won't be far behind.
WSJ | Shrinking Share of Overseas Cash Headed to U.S.
Despite its cheap energy and other advantages, America is still losing ground to emerging markets in the battle for foreign investment.
CNN Money | American Airlines, US Airways to form largest air carrier Monday
The merger of American Airlines and US Airways is expected to form an air travel giant larger than the current industry leader, United Continental Holdings
CNBC | Washington is standing in the way of US recovery
After the latest jobs report, U.S. markets soared. The Dow Jones climbed to 16,020, while Nasdaq roared to over 4,060 and even S&P 500 exceeded 1,800.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Real Clear Markets | The Facts Are In, More Government Means Less Growth
Governments around the world have tried a myriad of policies in mostly fruitless attempts to help their economies recover from the recent severe recession. These policies, both tried-and-true and never-seen-before, have sparked a spirited debate among economists, central bankers, and policymakers about the role of government in economic policy.
Washington Post | America’s clash of generations is inevitable
We are locked in a generational war, which will get worse before it gets better. Indeed, it may not get better for a long time. No one wants to admit this, because it’s ugly and unwelcome. Parents are supposed to care for their children, and children are supposed to care for their aging parents. For families, these collective obligations may work. But what makes sense for families doesn’t always succeed for society as a whole. The clash of generations is intensifying.
WSJ | Barney Frank vs. Dodd-Frank
After JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that regulation under the Dodd-Frank law was going too far, Washington retaliated with investigations leading to a record $13 billion settlement. But how will Team Obama react now that one of the law's principal authors is questioning the regulatory expansion?
Fortune | Will the Volcker Rule crush Goldman Sachs?
Goldman has traditionally made more of its money trading than other Wall Street firms, putting the bank at particular risk depending on how the final version of the Volcker Rule is structured.
Real Clear Markets | How the Housing Collapse Predicts the Future of Insurance
In economics incentives are everything. Take the housing collapse for example. When home values plummeted a massive number of owners, who were in over their heads with home loans they could not afford, simply walked away from their obligations and stopped paying their mortgages.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
WSJ | 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar
Even though media coverage on the economy may focus on how the holiday shopping season is unfolding, economy-watchers will still want to keep an eye on these five things in the reports scheduled for the week ending December 6.
Café Hayek | The Economic Way of Thinking
What is economic theory?  Is it a body of proven truths?  Or a set of hypotheses whose only merit is that they’ve so far been successfully tested against the facts? Most economists openly embrace the latter position, but secretly believe the former.  The smoking gun: The typical economist has well-defined views on a wide range of issues, even though he is only familiar with a handful of empirical literatures.  If economists really believed their official methodological position, they’d be agnostic on the vast majority of topics.  They aren’t.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Obamacare Website Incorrectly Directs Some to Medicaid
HealthCare.gov is incorrectly determining that some Americans are eligible for Medicaid when they are not.
Roll Call | Capitol Hill Feels Pains of Obamacare Sign-Up Troubles
Members of Congress who have gone along with the idea that they should get insurance through Obamacare’s system of exchanges are getting a stronger dose of medicine than they bargained for.
National Journal | Low Premiums Hide High Costs on Obamacare Exchange
While deductibles have been climbing, the number soars above the $3,589 average for individual plans purchased in 2013 before the federal exchange implementation began, according to HealthPocket, which offers an online plan comparison tool.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | Still waiting for an Obamacare exemption
If there’s one thing that Americans and special-interest groups can agree on these days, it’s that they want to be exempted in some capacity from Obamacare. Barely a day after its passage, individuals, businesses and other groups began to line up in the hopes of being waived from Obamacare’s mandates.
CNN Money | A red state health care exchange that works
Building a health insurance exchange in time for Obamacare's Oct. 1 deadline was daunting, especially in Kentucky, the only Romney-voting state to take on the challenge. While others relied on the federal government and were left with a glitch-ridden Healthcare.gov, Carrie Banahan, director of the Office of the Kentucky Health Benefit Exchange, oversaw the task herself -- and got the site up and running a day early. Edited excerpts of her conversation with Fortune follow:
WSJ | High Deductibles Fuel New Worries of Health-Law Sticker Shock
As enrollment picks up on the HealthCare.gov website, many people with modest incomes are encountering a troubling element of the federal health law: deductibles so steep they may not be able to afford the portion of medical expenses that insurance doesn't cover.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | 52% of Americans Want Congress to Repeal or Scale Back Obamacare
A new Gallup poll reveals that a majority of Americans remain strongly opposed to Obamacare — 52 percent want Congress to either repeal the law entirely or scale it back. That’s an increase of 2 percentage points from mid-October.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Switzerland Urges Banks to Meet U.S. Disclosure Deadline
Swiss authorities are urging banks to quash their doubts and enter a U.S. voluntary disclosure program aimed at uncovering American tax evaders.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | The Fed’s scandalous monetary policy
As the vote on Obamacare approached in 2010 — a year when the budget deficit was a staggering $1.3 trillion — the Democratic majority ignored the opposition’s concerns about the costs and unintended consequences of restructuring the entire health care system.
AEI | Europe is in deflation denial
One has to wonder what Olli Rehn, the European Union’s Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Policy Affairs, is looking at when he boldly asserts that deflation is not a risk for Euro member countries. Not only does he seem to be glossing over the rapid pace of disinflation that has already occurred in Europe.

Taxes

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | IRS doubles down
While most Americans were buying turkeys, baking pumpkin pies and planning their family Thanksgiving get-togethers, the Internal Revenue Service was hard at work strengthening its grip on free speech. With the release of a new set of new rules governing nonprofit organizations, the tax man is granting himself the authority to crack down further on groups that annoy the administration.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | The Self-Perpetuating Problem of Long-Term Unemployment
Agwu Onwuka has been out of work for well over six months. He initially started looking for jobs like his last one, counseling people with disabilities. But as the months dragged on, he started submitting applications for retail jobs, cold-calling at office buildings, and visiting local nonprofit LIFT-DC for résumé help.
CNN Money | Five key numbers behind the jobs recovery
The U.S. economy is poised to add the most jobs since well before the start of the Great Recession.
Bloomberg | EADS to Cut 5,800 Jobs in Defense-Unit Revamp, Union Says
European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. (EAD) plans to trim 5,800 jobs as part of a a combination of space and defense assets as governments curtail spending.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
NBER | Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession
Disability insurance (DI) applications and awards are countercyclical. One potential explanation is that unemployed individuals who exhaust their Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits use DI as a form of extended benefits.
Heritage Foundation | Heritage Employment Report: Slow Recovery Continues in November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the recovery continued at a steady pace in November. The unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage point while employers created 203,000 jobs.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | First China Default Seen as Record $427 Billion Debt Due
Chinese company debt twice the size of Ireland’s economy will come due in 2014, spurring concern the nation is on the cusp of its first corporate bond default.
Bloomberg | Budget Deal in U.S. Would Reduce Automatic Spending Cuts
U.S. budget negotiators are nearing a deal to trim automatic spending cuts that might break a three-year cycle of failed fiscal talks in Washington.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Mercatus | Comparing President Obama’s Early Budget with His Mid-Session Review
How realistic are presidential budget projections? Even the most careful calculations are susceptible to inappropriate assumptions, misplaced optimism about economic and political conditions, and unavoidable uncertainty about what the future will hold.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CBO | Options for Reducing the Deficit: Mandatory Spending
CBO recently published a report on Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023. That report is now available in a fully digital version, so users can search the options according to major budget category, budget function, and major program category. The report included 23 options for changing mandatory spending programs (apart from options primarily involving health); they are listed at the bottom of this post with estimates of their budgetary savings.
CATO | Budget Deal: A Dangerous Precedent
Republican and Democratic negotiators are expected to agree to a budget deal this week setting spending levels for 2014. The Washington Post says that the deal will amount to “little more than a cease-fire.”