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Monday, December 16, 2013

General Economics

News                                                                                                                             
Bloomberg | Industrial Production in U.S. Increases 1.1%, Most in a Year
Industrial production in the U.S. climbed in November by the most in a year, a sign manufacturing (IPMGCHNG) is bolstering the world’s biggest economy.
Politico | Federal workers' pensions targeted in budget deal
Distinctly unpopular among voters and a scant presence in most congressional districts, federal workers have become an easy target in the hunt for budget savings.
FOX Business | Foreigners Head Back into U.S. Assets
Foreigners rushed back into U.S. assets in October, after they fled from them in September on fears that the government could default on some of its debt obligations, U.S. Treasury data showed on Monday.
National Journal | How One Mayor Pulled Back His City From Potential Bankruptcy
Angel Taveras had been in office barely eight weeks when his chief of staff walked in with the news. Michael D'Amico had just come from a somber meeting with the city's municipal finance review panel. D'Amico sat in the ancient couch in the mayor's second-floor City Hall office. The window behind him looked out on Providence's "Superman building," a city icon strikingly like the Daily Planet tower of comic-book fame, which was on its way to total vacancy.
Bloomberg | Euro-Area Factory Output Expands Faster Than Forecast: Economy
Euro-area factory output grew at a faster pace than economists forecast in December, led by Germany, as the currency bloc continued its gradual recovery from a record-long recession.
Market Watch | U.S. Markit flash PMI slightly lower in December
The U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index inched lower to a 54.4 reading in December from 54.7 in November, but still signaled solid business conditions, Markit said Monday.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | The Hidden Danger in Public Pension Funds
The threat that public-employee pensions pose to state and local government finances is well known—witness the federal ruling earlier this month that Detroit's pension obligations are not sacrosanct in a municipal bankruptcy. Less well known is that pensions are larger and their investments riskier than at any point since public employees began unionizing in earnest nearly half a century ago.
Real Clear Markets | Mortgage Originators Must Have Skin In the Game
The Dodd-Frank financial regulation reform law passed after the 2008 financial crisis is mostly a misguided over-regulation of the financial sector that punishes financial firms with costs and compliance burdens for little gain.
CNN Money | How 2013 shaped up
So how did last year's predictions work out? Here's what Money magazine's December 2012 issue said would happen -- and how the year turned out.
Daily Caller | Paul Ryan saves the GOP from itself
If the GOP wants to retake the Senate and hold the House in 2014, the key issues must be the catastrophic pitfalls of Obamacare and better economic growth. A shutdown would be a distraction. It would take the heat off Obama and Obamacare, and all the Democrats who falsely promised that if you like your insurance and doctor, you can keep them.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Economist | The new European Union
It has been a brutal half decade for the European Union. Given the tempestuousness, it is interesting to note that real per capita output across the EU is about where it was in 2008. While many countries have had it bad in many ways at many times over the past five years, the most significant economic shift in the EU has been shift in its internal economic order.
WSJ | Number of the Week: Half of U.S. Lives in Household Getting Benefits
49.2%: Percent of the population that lives in a household where at least one member received some type of government benefit in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Health Care

News                                                                                                                             
Politico | The Republican Answer to Obamacare
It’s been a rough two months for the White House since HealthCare.gov went live on Oct 1. In the weeks that followed, it soon became clear that the problem was not just one of technical incompetence leading to a shoddy website, but of bad policy.
Washington Times | Obamacare to drive up health care cost for everyone
Just when the government’s insurance website is starting to run more smoothly, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds a potentially bigger problem for President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
WSJ | ObamaCare's Troubles Are Only Beginning
The White House is claiming that the Healthcare.gov website is mostly fixed, that the millions of Americans whose health plans were canceled thanks to government rules may be able to keep them for another year, and that in any event these people will get better plans through ObamaCare exchanges.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Heritage Foundation | How to Help Uninsured Americans
Two of the problems Obamacare promised to solve were getting coverage for people with pre-existing conditions and helping the uninsured get coverage. Last week, we talked about how Heritage’s alternative to Obamacare would help people with pre-existing conditions. Today, let’s talk about the uninsured.

Monetary

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | How Janet Yellen's Agenda Could Transform Washington
Every Federal Reserve Board chairman comes into office with a secret agenda, a hidden passion. It's the sort of thing you don't hear about at the confirmation hearings, and yet it is often this grand passion—suddenly given voice in the world's bulliest economic pulpit—that shapes the nation's future in unexpected ways.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Washington Times | A bad idea making America even less competitive
The usual suspects were positively giddy last week after five federal agencies got together to adopt what’s known as the Volcker rule. This somewhat obscure, thousand-page regulation isn’t the sort of thing to come up in casual conversation around the water cooler (except on Wall Street). But it’s another example of the bad ideas making America less competitive.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
Market Watch | Fed never grabs punch bowl in December, analyst points out
More than one economist believes the Federal Reserve’s decision this week on whether to start to pull back, or taper, its bond-buying program is a “coin toss.”

Taxes

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Politico | Congress turns to tax reform
Updating the federal tax code could be the next area in which the Democratic Senate can find common ground with the Republican House, according to Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.).
Fortune | Corporate tax giveaways are not worth the trouble
Tax incentives in exchange for corporate commitments have now become the norm, and they are only growing more costly. But they rarely do what they promise.
AEI | Distributional effects of a carbon tax in broader US fiscal reform
This paper analyzes the distributional implications of an illustrative $15 carbon tax imposed in 2010 on carbon in fossil fuels. We analyze its incidence across income classes and regions, both in isolation and when combined with measures that apply the carbon tax revenue to lowering other distortionary taxes in the economy.

Employment

News                                                                                                                             
National Journal | Unemployment Benefits End Right After Christmas. Here’s What Happens Next.
Just three days after Christmas, 1.3 million people will lose their federal emergency unemployment insurance. The extension of the benefits for the long-time jobless didn't make its way into the budget deal that is expected to pass the Senate this week.
FOX News | US worker productivity grew 3 percent over the summer as output rose; labor costs fall
 U.S. workers boosted their productivity from July through September at the fastest pace since the end of 2009, adding to signs of stronger growth.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
CRS | Expiring Unemployment Insurance Provisions
Once these federal unemployment provisions expire, only regular, state-financed unemployment benefits from the Unemployment Compensation (UC) program will generally be available. In most states, UC provides up to 26 weeks of benefits.
AEI | Why unemployment benefits should be extended
We shouldn’t let emergency federal benefits expire because the same fundamental logic that led to their being (correctly) enacted still holds today: The labor market is still in bad shape, the economy is still weak, there are three times as many unemployed workers as job openings.

Budget

News                                                                                                                             
CNN Money | Paul Ryan: Stay tuned for GOP debt ceiling demands
Paul Ryan defused the likelihood of a government shutdown in January with the bipartisan budget deal he helped strike last week. But on Sunday he did nothing to tamp down the possibility of a showdown over the debt ceiling.
Bloomberg | Budget Deal Lauded by Lawmakers Belies U.S. Fiscal Rigors
Members of Congress are congratulating themselves on a budget accord set to win final passage this week. Business leaders aren’t celebrating, saying the deal leaves too much unfinished business.

Econ Comments & Analysis                                                                                            
Forbes | For Paul Ryan And The Republicans, Tomorrow Is The Day That Never Comes
Back in 2011, and during that budget ceiling fight, it was suggested by more than a few members of the commentariat that the “unrealistic wing of the conservative movement” would break the Republican party overall for demanding ‘unrealistic’ reductions in the burden of government. The argument then was that Republicans should cave on a debt ceiling (more on deficits in a bit) deal in order to fight the eternal spending battle at a later date.
LA Times | Simpson and Bowles: Budget deal is just a start
The new bipartisan plan, though a much-needed improvement over crisis budgeting, leaves unaddressed the fundamental fiscal challenges we identified in 2010.

Blogs                                                                                                                             
CATO | More on the Ryan-Murray Budget Deal
The Ryan-Murray budget deal is remarkably bad when you look at the details. If the Republican Party is supposed to be the fiscally conservative party, there is virtually nothing Republican in the agreement. The Democrats could have written the whole thing themselves. It raises spending and taxes, and reduces the deficit only in a jury-rigged scorekeeping kind of a way that won’t actually be realized.
Heritage Foundation | Why Conservatives Don't Like the Ryan-Murray Budget Deal
Next week, the Senate will consider the Ryan-Murray budget deal — a spending plan that disappoints conservatives and believers in a limited government that manages its finances.